Football - Postseason Watch

10/28/2024

I'm not sure I have seen a season this wide open this far into the season in my entire life.  Memories of 2007 keep popping up with underdogs galore, crazy results, and shocking upsets littering every single single conference.  This year, it's all about survival and hanging on for dear life, hoping desperately that your team is not the next victim of 2024's hectic football season.

With that said, let's take a dive into how the postseason is shaping up!  Starting this week, I will be writing an article that displays who is still alive for the playoffs, who is going bowling, and last, but not least, the model's prediction for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!

WHO IS ALIVE:

I will be breaking this down my conference to discuss who is mathematically (however unlikely) still alive for the playoffs.  Starting next week, I will also track new teams eliminated.

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

  1. Army (7-0)
  2. Navy (6-1)
  3. Tulane (6-2)*
  4. Memphis (7-1)

ACC:

  1. Clemson (6-1)
  2. Miami (FL) (8-0)
  3. SMU (7-1)
  4. Pittsburgh (7-0)
  5. Virginia Tech (5-3)*
  6. Louisville (5-3)*
  7. Syracuse (5-2)*
  8. Duke (6-2)*

Big 12:

  1. BYU (8-0)
  2. Iowa State (7-0)
  3. Kansas State (7-1)
  4. Colorado (6-2)
  5. TCU (5-3)*
  6. Texas Tech (5-3)*
  7. Cincinnati (5-3)*
  8. Arizona State (5-2)*

Big Ten:

  1. Indiana (8-0)
  2. Oregon (8-0)
  3. Penn State (7-0)
  4. Ohio State (6-1)
  5. Illinois (6-2)
  6. Iowa (5-3)*
  7. Michigan (5-3)*
  8. Minnesota (5-3)*
  9. Wisconsin (5-3)*
  10. Nebraska (5-3)*

Conference USA:

  1. Western Kentucky (5-2)*
  2. Liberty (5-1)*
  3. Sam Houston (6-2)*

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

  1. Notre Dame (7-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (6-1)
  2. UNLV (6-2)*

Pac-12: (Pac-2?)

  1. Washington State (7-1)*

SEC:

  1. Texas A&M (7-1)
  2. Georgia (6-1)
  3. Texas (7-1)
  4. Tennessee (6-1)
  5. LSU (6-2)
  6. Alabama (6-2)
  7. Arkansas (5-3)*
  8. Missouri (6-2)
  9. Ole Miss (6-2)
  10. Vanderbilt (5-3)*
  11. Florida (4-3)*

Sun Belt:

  1. Louisiana (6-1)
  2. UL Monroe (5-2)*
  3. James Madison (6-2)*

Overall, there are still many teams left with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, but the road ahead for many of them (especially the 3 loss teams) is crazy.  Every single one of the remaining games this season is of major importance.

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024

American: Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis
ACC: Clemson, Miami, SMU, Pittsburgh, Duke
Big 12: BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Colorado
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois
Conference USA: Sam Houston
Independents: Notre Dame
MAC:
Mountain West: Boise State, UNLV
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss
Sun Belt: Louisiana, James Madison

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions.  The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion.  The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out: 
Tennessee, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Alabama

First round:
#9 Georgia @ #8 Clemson
#12 Boise State @ #5 Penn State
#11 Iowa State @ #6 Indiana
#10 Notre Dame @ #7 Ohio State

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Texas
#4 Penn State


My Prediction:

First four out:
Notre Dame, Tennessee, Iowa State, Pittsburgh

First round:
#9 Penn State @ #8 Texas A&M
#12 Army @ #5 Ohio State
#11 Kansas State @ #6 Georgia
#10 Indiana @ #7 Miami (FL)

Second round:
#8 Texas A&M vs #1 Oregon
#5 Ohio State vs #4 BYU
#6 Georgia vs #3 Clemson
#10 Indiana vs #2 Texas

Semi-Finals:
#5 Ohio State vs #1 Oregon
#3 Clemson vs #2 Texas

National Championship:
#2 Texas vs #1 Oregon

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

Way back in January, after the National Championship game, I made some bold predictions about how this season would pan out.  Some things I hit head on while others weren't so great.  I predicted the craziness with weird teams getting ranked and some favorites bowing out super early.  Still, I predicted better from the likes of Florida State and Michigan.  Overall, the one big thing that stayed the same?  A prediction that Oregon beats Texas in the natty this year.  I predicted it then and I'm predicting it again.  Those two teams have had amazing years so far and I think they have what it takes to make a run.

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