Football - Postseason Watch

11/03/2024

This is the second edition of my Postseason Watch series where I discuss who still has a chance to make the playoffs, who is bowl-bound, and my predictions for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!  Without further ado, let's dive right in.

WHO IS ALIVE:

First off, let's talk about all of the teams who were eliminated from playoff contention this past week and why:

  • Virginia Tech (ACC): faced their second conference loss and fourth of the season.   ACC Championship is realistically out of reach and no 4-loss teams are making the playoff.
  • Duke (ACC): Lost a third conference game and now have 3 total losses
  • TCU (Big 12): Lost a third conference game and fourth overall. The Big 12 Championship is now out of reach.
  • Michigan (Big Ten):  Lost their third conference game and now have four total losses.  The Wolverines are finally out of playoff contention.
  • Nebraska (Big Ten): Lost a fourth conference game and a fourth game overall.  With the way results panned out today, they would have been eliminated win or loss as a four loss team will not make the Big Ten Championship Game.
  • Wisconsin (Big Ten): Lost a third conference game and a fourth overall.  The Big Ten Championship is now out of reach and a 4-loss team will not be making the playoffs.
  • Arkansas (SEC): Lost a third conference game and fourth overall. The SEC Championship is now out of reach and their resume is no longer good enough for playoff contention.
  • Florida (SEC): Same scenario as Arkansas.
  • UL Monroe (Sun Belt): Lost their second conference game and third overall.  The Sun Belt Championship Game is still a possibility, but the Group of Five playoff spot will not fall to a 3-loss team.

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

  1. Army (8-0)
  2. Tulane (7-2)*
  3. Navy (6-1)
  4. Memphis (7-2)*

ACC:

  1. Miami (FL) (9-0)
  2. SMU (8-1)
  3. Clemson (6-2)
  4. Pittsburgh (7-1)
  5. Louisville (6-3)*
  6. Syracuse (6-2)*

Big 12:

  1. BYU (8-0)
  2. Iowa State (7-1)
  3. Colorado (6-2)
  4. Kansas State (7-2)
  5. Texas Tech (6-3)*
  6. Cincinnati (5-3)*
  7. Arizona State (6-2)*

Big Ten:

  1. Indiana (9-0)
  2. Oregon (9-0)
  3. Ohio State (7-1)
  4. Penn State (7-1)
  5. Iowa (6-3)*
  6. Illinois (6-3)*
  7. Minnesota (6-3)*

Conference USA:

  1. Western Kentucky (6-2)*
  2. Sam Houston (7-2)*
  3. Liberty (5-2)*

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

  1. Notre Dame (7-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (7-1)
  2. UNLV (6-2)*

Pac-12: (Pac-2?)

  1. Washington State (7-1)*

SEC:

  1. Georgia (7-1)
  2. Texas A&M (7-2)
  3. Tennessee (7-1)
  4. Texas (7-1)
  5. LSU (6-2)
  6. Vanderbilt (6-3)*
  7. Alabama (6-2)
  8. Ole Miss (7-2)
  9. Missouri (6-2)

Sun Belt:

  1. Louisiana (7-1)
  2. James Madison (6-2)*

I do have a few comments on this list, so I will break the down by conference.  

In the American conference, everything is pretty straightforward except for Memphis, who I'm on the fence about, but still have Tulane on their schedule which could be their quality win along with a potential AAC Championship, but things are not looking good for them.  

In the ACC, Louisville are still alive because they only have 2 conference losses and could reasonably win the conference still.  

In the Big 12, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, and Arizona State are right on that line of in/out, but they could technically still make and win the Big 12 Championship which would give them an automatic playoff spot.  

In the Big Ten, Iowa and Minnesota only have 2 conference losses each and could still make the Big Ten Championship.  Illinois have 3 conference losses, but they have not lost out-of-conference and could still make it as an at-large team, but a lot would have to go right for them from here on out.  

In Conference USA, Jacksonville State are still undefeated in conference play and have a chance to win it, but their 3 losses are too many for them to be the highest ranked group of five conference champion.  

The MAC conference has just beat itself up this year, like always.  We will not be seeing a playoff team from there.  

Similarly to Conference USA, Colorado State are undefeated in conference play, but their 3 losses are too many to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, even if they go on to win the Mountain West.  

In the Pac-12, Washington State are the only one of the two teams still alive.  Without the automatic spot and without a conference championship game, they are already on the edge of elimination even though they have only 1 loss to their name so far.  

The SEC has been crazy this year to say the least.  Vanderbilt are still alive as a 3-loss team since they only have 2 conference losses and could technically still make the SEC Championship, but they no longer control their own destiny.  With South Carolina, all 3 losses are to SEC opponents and they will no longer be able to reach the SEC Championship.

Finally, in the Sun Belt, James Madison already have 2 conference losses, but with no other losses on the year, they are still alive for the Sun Belt Championship, but chances are looking slim.

One final note:  While there are still other teams mathematically still alive, the group of five race feels like it has come down to Army, Boise State, and Louisiana.  If I were making a bet, I would put my money on the Broncos of Boise State to take the automatic spot.

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024

American: Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis
ACC: Miami, SMU, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Duke
Big 12: BYU, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arizona State
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois
Conference USA: Western Kentucky, Sam Houston
Independents: Notre Dame, UConn
MAC: Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Texas, LSU, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Georgia Southern, James Madison

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion. The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
SMU, Clemson, Ole Miss, LSU

First round:
#9 Notre Dame @ #8 Penn State
#12 Boise State @ #5 Ohio State
#11 Alabama @ #6 Indiana
#10 Tennessee @ #7 Georgia

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Texas
#4 BYU

My Prediction:

First four out:
SMU, Alabama, LSU, Iowa State

First round:
#9 Tennessee @ #8 Georgia
#12 Boise State @ #5 Miami (FL)
#11 Penn State @ #6 Indiana
#10 Notre Dame @ #7 Ohio State

Second round:
#8 Georgia vs #1 Oregon
#5 Miami (FL) vs #4 BYU
#11 Penn State vs #3 Clemson
#10 Ohio State vs #2 Texas

Semi-Finals:
#1 Oregon vs #5 Miami (FL)
#3 Clemson vs #2 Texas

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #2 Texas

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

The other contenders may change week-to-week, but I still think Oregon and Texas are the two teams who will be playing for a National Championship in January!  The Ducks may have struggled early in the year, but have fought through adversity and now look virtually unstoppable.  After their loss to Georgia and sketchy win over Vanderbilt, I think Texas will fix their problems, win the SEC Championship, and go all the way to Atlanta to play Oregon in the National Championship.

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