Football - Postseason Watch

11/11/2024

This is the third edition of my Postseason Watch series where I discuss who still has a chance to make the playoffs, who is bowl-bound, and my predictions for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!

WHO IS ALIVE:

First off, let's talk about all of the teams who were eliminated from playoff contention this past week and why:

  • Syracuse (ACC):  Lost their third game overall and third in the conference.  The ACC Championship is now out of reach.
  • Texas Tech (Big 12): Lost their fourth game of the season and third in conference.  The Big 12 Championship is now out of reach for the Red Raiders.
  • Cincinnati (Big 12):  Lost their fourth game of the season and third in conference, same as Texas Tech.
  • Iowa (Big Ten): Lost their fourth game of the season and can no longer reach the Big Ten Championship game.
  • Minnesota (Big Ten): Same as Iowa
  • Vanderbilt (SEC): Lost their fourth game of the season and third in conference.  The SEC Championship is now out of reach.

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

  1. Army (9-0)^
  2. Tulane (8-2)*^
  3. Navy (7-2)*
  4. Memphis (8-2)*

ACC:

  1. SMU (8-1)
  2. Clemson (7-2)*
  3. Miami (FL) (9-1)
  4. Louisville (6-3)*
  5. Pittsburgh (7-2)*

Big 12:

  1. BYU (9-0)
  2. Colorado (7-2)
  3. Iowa State (7-2)
  4. Kansas State (7-2)
  5. Arizona State (7-2)

Big Ten:

  1. Indiana (10-0)
  2. Oregon (10-0)
  3. Ohio State (8-1)
  4. Penn State (8-1)
  5. Illinois (6-3)*

Conference USA:

  1. Western Kentucky (7-2)*
  2. Sam Houston (7-2)*
  3. Liberty (6-2)*

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

  1. Notre Dame (8-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (8-1)
  2. UNLV (6-2)*

Pac-12: (Pac-2?)

  1. Washington State (7-1)*

SEC:

  1. Tennessee (8-1)
  2. Texas A&M (7-2)
  3. Texas (8-1)
  4. Georgia (7-2)
  5. Ole Miss (8-2)
  6. Alabama (7-2)
  7. LSU (6-3)*
  8. Missouri (7-2)

Sun Belt:

  1. Louisiana (8-1)
  2. James Madison (7-2)*

I do have a few comments on this list, so I will break the down by conference.

In the American conference, Memphis is still alive with a chance to make the AAC Championship game, but they are the only one of the four teams still alive that does not control their own destiny for conference play, but only Army really controls their own destiny for the playoffs.  Navy and Memphis both must beat Tulane to make the all-important conference championship spot and hope the other loses.  Meanwhile, both of them and Tulane need other top group of five contenders to lose at least once to get that 5th conference champion playoff bid.

We've seen nothing but utter chaos in the ACC.  SMU now leads the standings while Miami drops to third behind Clemson.  It's now a serious question whether or not we get more than one ACC team in the playoffs.  SMU's schedule looks really good with just a few weeks to go to make the ACC Championship game out of seemingly nowhere.  Miami and Clemson are now fighting for that second spot, but Louisville and Pitt aren't out just yet.

Last week, I had a * by Arizona State, but not the other 2-loss teams.  This was because Arizona State's schedule had been pretty weak, but I had neglected to look to their future.  While they still don't control their own destiny, wins AT Kansas State and against BYU could propel them to a Big 12 Championship game with help from Colorado.  With an opportunity like that, it is possible that they could lose once more and still mathematically make it, but that would be asking for a lot of other upsets.  Still, I have made the correction.

I have few words to describe the craziness and the dominance that is the Big Ten.  The top four teams share a combined 2 losses with 3 weeks to go in the regular season.  Illinois is the only other team with a mathematical chance of making the Big Ten Championship game and the playoffs, but they would need a lot of miracles to happen and can't make one poor step anywhere.

Conference USA as a whole is just about one week away from total conference playoff elimination with the top teams already having two losses.  It would take a lot as it is for any of them to still make the playoffs, but it's 2024!  This year has already seen crazy things happen.

MACtion has started and it's time for mid-week awesomeness!  I love watching the MAC teams duke it out on Tuesdays and Wednesdays!  The conference is a long way away from having a playoff team and are fully eliminated already this year just because of how much they beat each other up.  Quality entertainment, though.

Colorado State are still undefeated in conference play, but their 3 non-conference losses are too much to still make the playoffs.  That said, Boise State are very strong contenders for the group of five spot, especially if they win out.  UNLV are still alive, but they MUST win out and hope for good results elsewhere.

Washington State is still alive, but without the benefit of a conference championship, they have to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs.  Even then, with their weaker schedule, they likely need help from elsewhere to make it.

The SEC has been even crazier than the Big Ten.  They have been tearing each other apart week after week.  With the Ole Miss stomping of Georgia, the SEC Championship could NOT be less clear with 3 weeks left.  The SEC sweethearts of the year, Vanderbilt finally looked like themselves and got eliminated this week, but there are still a large number of contenders.  LSU definitely needs the most help now after their big loss at home to Alabama, but they are still mathematically alive.  I can't wait to see how the rest of these games pan out.

Ah, the Sun Belt conference.  The last conference with divisions in FBS!  Louisiana leads the west while Georgia Southern leads the east, but the latter already have 3 losses and are eliminated from the playoffs.  James Madison, on the other hand, have one more conference loss, but one less loss overall and could still mathematically make the playoffs, but of all the teams still alive, they definitely have the worst shot.  Even with a win next week, they could face elimination without the perfect results.

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024

American: Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke
Big 12: BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State, TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois
Conference USA: Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston, Liberty
Independents: Notre Dame, UConn
MAC: Ohio, Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Jose State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion. The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
SMU, Clemson, Georgia, Army

First round:
#9 Notre Dame @ #8 Alabama
#12 Boise State @ #5 Indiana
#11 Tennessee @ #6 Ohio State
#10 Ole Miss @ #7 Penn State

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Miami (FL)
#4 BYU

My Prediction:

First four out:
SMU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Army

First round:
#9 Alabama @ #8 Indiana
#12 Notre Dame @ #5 Ohio State
#11 Boise State @ #6 Tennessee
#10 Penn State @ #7 SMU

Second round:
#9 Alabama vs #1 Oregon
#5 Ohio State vs #4 BYU
#6 Tennessee vs #3 Clemson
#10 Penn State vs #2 Texas

Semi-Finals:
#1 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State (NOTE: Big Ten championship rematch and for the third time in the season)
#6 Tennessee vs #2 Texas (NOTE: SEC championship rematch)

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #2 Texas

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

Even after all of this craziness, I still think we end up with an Oregon vs Texas National Championship with the Ducks winning it all!  Some way, somehow, I always see us getting here.  Thanks for reading this week's edition of Postseason Watch.  I'll keep writing these weekly until we know who is in!

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