Football - Postseason Watch

This is the FOURTH edition of my Postseason Watch series where I discuss who still has a chance to make the playoffs, who is bowl-bound, and my predictions for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!

WHO IS ALIVE:

First, we have one team that, according to the model, has clinched a spot in the playoffs!  This means, they could lose out and still have enough points to stay within the playoff zone.  This does not guarantee that the committee will select them...it just means they should. So, these are the teams who have clinched a playoff spot, the week they did it, and how:

• Oregon (Big Ten) - Week 12 - The Big Ten announced on Tuesday, November 19 that Oregon has clinched the Big Ten Championship game regardless of what happens against Washington.  The model has predicted that the loser of the Big Ten Championship game, regardless of record, will qualify for the playoffs!

Secondly, let's talk about all of the teams who were eliminated from playoff contention this past week and why:

• Navy (American) - Not only did they lose again this weekend, but Army and Tulane have guaranteed their places in the American Conference Championship Game.
• Memphis (American) - Despite winning, Army and Tulane have guaranteed their places in the American Conference Championship Game.
• Louisville (ACC) - They were handed their fourth loss of the season and third in conference and can no longer reach the conference championship game.
• Pittsburgh (ACC) - They lost their third game of the season and in the conference and can no longer reach their conference championship game.
• Kansas State (Big 12) - Same as Pittsburgh, but in the Big 12.
• Illinois (Big Ten) - Can no longer make it to the Big Ten Championship Game and have too many losses for an at-large spot.
• Western Kentucky (Conference USA) - Can still make the CUSA Conference Championship Game, but with 3 losses, they will not have a good enough record to be the best Group of Five champion.
• Washington State (Pac-12) - With their second loss and without the option for a conference championship, there is no longer a path to the playoff for them.
• LSU (SEC) - Lost their third conference game and can no longer make the SEC Championship and will end with a minimum of 4 losses.
• Missouri (SEC) - Lost their third conference game and can no longer make the SEC Championship.  Despite still possibly ending with 3 losses, they lack a quality win on their resume to break into the Top 4 or 5 in the SEC.

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

1. Army (9-0)
2. Tulane (9-2)*

ACC:

1. SMU (9-1)
2. Clemson (8-2)*
3. Miami (FL) (9-1)

Big 12:

1. BYU (9-1)
2. Colorado (8-2)*
3. Iowa State (8-2)*
4. Arizona State (8-2)*

Big Ten:

1. Oregon (11-0)
2. Indiana (10-0)
3. Ohio State (9-1)
4. Penn State (9-1)

Conference USA:

1. Sam Houston (7-2)*
2. Liberty (6-2)*

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

1. Notre Dame (9-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

1. Boise State (9-1)
2. UNLV (8-2)*

Pac-12: Nobody

SEC:

1. Texas (9-1)
2. Texas A&M (8-2)
3. Georgia (8-2)
4. Tennessee (8-2)
5. Alabama (8-2)
6. Ole Miss (8-2)

Sun Belt:

1. Louisiana (8-2)*
2. James Madison (8-2)*

I don't have as many comments this week, so I will keep this section brief.  Teams in Conference USA and the Sun Belt might as well be eliminated.  Mathematically, they have a shot, so I left them in, but with how things are going, I don't expect them to stay on this last past next weekend.  The same goes for UNLV (who might not even make the Mountain West Championship Game), and Tulane who already sit at 2-losses. The way this season panned out, it looks like there won't be any 3-loss teams in the playoffs, so those SEC teams could all have an * by their name at this point, but with how crazy that conference is, it's not entirely out of the question yet.

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken down by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024

American: Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
Big 12: BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington, Rutgers
Conference USA: Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, Liberty
Independents: Notre Dame, UConn
MAC: Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Jose State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Marshall, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Texas State, Arkansas State

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion. The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Clemson, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Army

First round:
#9 Alabama @ #8 Notre Dame
#12 BYU @ #5 Indiana
#11 Georgia @ #6 Ohio State
#10 SMU @ #7 Penn State

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Miami (FL)
#4 Boise State

My Prediction:

First four out:

BYU, Army, Clemson, Ole Miss

First round:
#9 Ohio State @ #8 Notre Dame
#12 Colorado @ #5 Indiana
#11 Miami (FL) @ #6 Penn State
#10 Alabama @ #7 Georgia

Second round:
#9 Ohio State vs #1 Oregon
#5 Indiana vs #4 Boise State
#6 Penn State vs #3 SMU
#7 Georgia vs #2 Texas

Semi-Finals:
#1 Oregon vs #5 Indiana
#3 SMU vs #2 Texas

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #2 Texas

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

Even after all of this craziness, I still think we end up with an Oregon vs Texas National Championship with the Ducks winning it all! Some way, somehow, I always see us getting here. Thanks for reading this week's edition of Postseason Watch. I'll keep writing these weekly until we know who is in!