Football - Postseason Watch

11/25/2024

This is the FIFTH edition of my Postseason Watch series where I discuss who still has a chance to make the playoffs, who is bowl-bound, and my predictions for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!

WHO IS ALIVE:

First, we have some more teams that, according to the model, have clinched a spot in the playoffs! This means they could lose out and still have enough points to stay within the playoff zone. This does not guarantee that the committee will select them...it just means they should. So, these are the teams who have clinched a playoff spot, the week they did it, and how:

  • Oregon (Big Ten) - Week 12 - The Big Ten announced on Tuesday, November 19 that Oregon has clinched the Big Ten Championship game regardless of what happens against Washington. The model has predicted that the loser of the Big Ten Championship game, regardless of record, will qualify for the playoffs!
  • Ohio State (Big Ten) - Week 13 - While they have not clinched the Big Ten Championship yet, they have few enough losses and enough quality wins that even losing out will keep them in the playoffs.
  • Notre Dame (Independents) - Week 13 - Despite not having a conference championship opportunity, Notre Dame will still be making the playoffs as an at-large team this year.

Secondly, let's talk about all of the teams who were eliminated from playoff contention this past week and why:

  • Sam Houston State (Conference USA) - They lost their third game of the season this week, but even a win would have eliminated them from playoff contention with how the other group of five conferences have played out.
  • Liberty (Conference USA) - With two losses and no key wins, they will not be the top ranked group of five conference champion regardless of whether or not they win out.
  • James Madison (Sun Belt) - Same as Sam Houston, but from the Sun Belt conference.
  • Louisiana (Sun Belt) - Same as Liberty

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

  1. Army (9-1)
  2. Tulane (9-2)*

ACC:

  1. SMU (10-1)
  2. Miami (FL) (10-1)
  3. Clemson (9-2)*

Big 12:

  1. Arizona State (9-2)*
  2. BYU (9-2)*
  3. Iowa State (8-2)*
  4. Colorado (8-3)*

Big Ten:

  1. Oregon (11-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-1)
  3. Indiana (10-1)*
  4. Penn State (10-1)

Conference USA: Nobody

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

  1. Notre Dame (10-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (10-1)
  2. UNLV (9-2)*

Pac-12: Nobody

SEC:

  1. Texas (10-1)
  2. Georgia (9-2)
  3. Tennessee (9-2)
  4. Texas A&M (8-3)*
  5. Alabama (8-3)*
  6. South Carolina (8-3)*
  7. Ole Miss (8-3)*

Sun Belt: Nobody

First, I need to address the elephant in the room.  I had previously listed South Carolina as eliminated, but the crazy scenarios we have seen play out has proved that was a mistake.  South Carolina is still mathematically alive and will have a genuine shout if they can topple Clemson this coming weekend.  Next, Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference have officially been eliminated from the playoffs just with how everything else has panned out in the Mountain West and American conferences.  Speaking of the American conference, Army and Tulane are both mathematically alive but are going to need a lot of help to make the playoffs at this point.  Lastly, I want to be able to eliminate Colorado, but with the four-way tie in the Big 12, they are still very much alive, even with 3 losses.   What a crazy season we are having.

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken down by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024.  Italics indicate new bowl eligible teams this week.

American: Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, South Florida, UTSA
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Boston College, California
Big 12: BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big Ten: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington, Rutgers, Michigan, USC, Nebraska
Conference USA: Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, Liberty
Independents: Notre Dame, UConn
MAC: Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Jose State, Fresno State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Marshall, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Texas State, Arkansas State, South Alabama

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion. The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, South Carolina

First round:
#9 SMU @ #8 Indiana
#12 Arizona State @ #5 Ohio State
#11 Clemson @ #6 Notre Dame
#10 Georgia @ #7 Penn State

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 Miami (FL)
#4 Boise State

My Prediction:

First four out:
Clemson, South Carolina, Alabama, BYU

First round:
#9 Georgia @ #8 Miami (FL)
#12 Arizona State @ #5 Notre Dame
#11 Tennessee @ #6 Ohio State
#10 Indiana @ #7 Penn State

Second round:
#9 Georgia vs #1 Oregon
#12 Arizona State vs #4 Boise State
#6 Ohio State vs #3 SMU
#7 Penn State vs #2 Texas

Semi-Finals:
#1 Oregon vs #12 Arizona State
#6 Ohio State vs #2 Texas

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #2 Texas

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

Even after all of this craziness, I still think we end up with an Oregon vs Texas National Championship with the Ducks winning it all! Some way, somehow, I always see us getting here. Thanks for reading this week's edition of Postseason Watch. I'll keep writing these weekly until we know who is in!

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