Football - Postseason Watch

12/02/2024

This is the SIXTH edition of my Postseason Watch series where I discuss who still has a chance to make the playoffs, who is bowl-bound, and my predictions for the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff!  The regular season has ended, so it's time to take a deeper dive into scenarios and who deserves the playoffs and who doesn't!

WHO IS ALIVE:

First, we have some more teams that, according to the model, have clinched a spot in the playoffs! This means they could lose out and still have enough points to stay within the playoff zone. This does not guarantee that the committee will select them...it just means they should. So, these are the teams who have clinched a playoff spot, the week they did it, and how:

  • Oregon (Big Ten) - Week 12 - The Big Ten announced on Tuesday, November 19 that Oregon has clinched the Big Ten Championship game regardless of what happens against Washington. The model has predicted that the loser of the Big Ten Championship game, regardless of record, will qualify for the playoffs!
  • Ohio State (Big Ten) - Week 13 - While they have not clinched the Big Ten Championship yet, they have few enough losses and enough quality wins that even losing out will keep them in the playoffs.
  • Notre Dame (Independents) - Week 13 - Despite not having a conference championship opportunity, Notre Dame will still be making the playoffs as an at-large team this year.
  • Texas (SEC) - Week 14 - With their win over Texas A&M and going into the SEC Championship as a 1-loss team, Texas will surely be in the playoffs.
  • Penn State (Big Ten) - Week 14 - After crushing the doubters and squeaking into the Big Ten Championship Game, the 1-loss Nittany Lions have clinched a playoff spot.
  • Indiana (Big Ten) - Week 14 - Indiana made a statement on rivalry weekend, proving they do deserve a spot despite their easier schedule.
  • Tennessee (SEC) - Week 14 - The Volunteers took down SEC sweethearts Vanderbilt and will finish the season with only 2 losses, guaranteeing themselves a spot in the playoffs.

Secondly, let's talk about all of the teams who were eliminated from playoff contention this past week and why:

  • Tulane (American) - Even a conference title win over Army will not be enough to jump them over the Big 12 and Mountain West champions in the rankings.
  • BYU (Big 12) - A couple weeks ago, BYU looked like virtual locks for a playoff spot before they hit their meltdown.  Now, after not making the Big 12 Championship at all, they are eliminated from the playoffs altogether.
  • Colorado (Big 12) - To the great pleasure of many, Colorado failed to make the Big 12 Championship game and will miss the playoffs this season.
  • Texas A&M (SEC) - The Aggies had major hopes going into rivalry week, but dropped a big one against Texas and will miss both the SEC Championship and the playoffs yet again.

* = one loss away from total elimination

American:

  1. Army (10-1)*

ACC:

  1. SMU (11-1)
  2. Miami (FL) (10-2)
  3. Clemson (9-3)*

Big 12:

  1. Arizona State (10-2)*
  2. Iowa State (10-2)*

Big Ten:

  1. Oregon (12-0)
  2. Penn State (11-1)
  3. Ohio State (10-2)
  4. Indiana (11-1)

Conference USA: Nobody

Independents: (I know, not a conference, but got to represent them somewhere)

  1. Notre Dame (11-1)

MAC: Nobody

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (11-1)*
  2. UNLV (10-2)*

Pac-12: Nobody

SEC:

  1. Texas (11-1)
  2. Georgia (10-2)*
  3. Tennessee (10-2)
  4. Alabama (9-3)
  5. South Carolina (9-3)
  6. Ole Miss (9-3)

Sun Belt: Nobody

I've got a few comments regarding this list after the conclusion of the regular season. I'm keeping Army on this list because there exists  a crazy scenario where they could possibly end up in the playoff, but it's highly unlikely.  Still, it's 2024 and they deserve the benefit of the doubt.  Clemson are one of the luckiest teams still alive as they have a chance to sneak into the playoffs as an ACC champion.  Without that Miami loss to Syracuse, Clemson would have been eliminated.  The Big 12 Champion is virtually guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, so the winner of Arizona State and Iowa State will be present (which is just wild given how the season started).  I, personally, think all four of the Big Ten teams are locks, but I'm not sure how the committee will handle them yet.  Notre Dame is going to the playoffs guaranteed now.  The winner of the Mountain West should, but a one loss Army team is still looming in the background, hoping for a UNLV win.  Now, when it comes to the SEC, I have some strong opinions.  I hate the idea of 3-loss teams making the playoff, so I made end up making a whole article about this.  First, if the committee really does want to take the "best" teams right now to the playoff, they can not keep South Carolina out.  That's just a matter of fact.  Same goes for Georgia even if they lose to Texas this weekend.  Finally, Alabama does NOT deserve to make the playoffs.  Losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma alone are enough for me to keep them out.  The CFP and AP bias keeping them in it this long has been crazy.  They are not deserving of that last at-large spot.  That's all for now!  I can't wait to see what happens this weekend and how the CFP sets up the playoffs!

WHO IS BOWL BOUND:

Broken down by conference, these are all of the teams that are guaranteed a bowl game in 2024. Italics indicate new bowl eligible teams this week.

American: Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, East Carolina, South Florida, UTSA, North Texas
ACC: SMU, Clemson, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Boston College, California, NC State
Big 12: BYU, Colorado, Arizona State, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big Ten: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington, Rutgers, Michigan, USC, Nebraska
Conference USA: Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston, Liberty
Independents: Notre Dame, UConn
MAC: Miami (OH), Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Jose State, Fresno State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Marshall, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Texas State, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion. The model's prediction does not predict any of the individual games whereas I went ahead and filled the whole bracket and predict a National Champion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Alabama, Clemson, Ole Miss, South Carolina

First round:
#9 Georgia @ #8 Indiana
#12 Arizona State @ #5 Notre Dame
#11 Tennessee @ #6 Ohio State
#10 Miami (FL) @ #7 Penn State

Byes:
#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 SMU
#4 Boise State

My Prediction:

First four out:
Miami (FL), Alabama, Ole Miss, Clemson

First round:
#9 Penn State @ #8 Tennessee
#12 Arizona State @ #5 Texas
#11 South Carolina @ #6 Notre Dame
#10 Indiana @ #7 Ohio State

Second round:
#8 Tennessee vs #1 Oregon
#5 Texas vs #4 Boise State
#11 South Carolina vs #3 SMU
#7 Ohio State vs #2 Georgia

Semi-Finals:
#1 Oregon vs #5 Texas
#11 South Carolina vs #2 Georgia

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #2 Georgia

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

This is the first time all year where I don't have Oregon playing Texas in the National Championship.  The only reason is because I think Georgia doubles up on Texas and beats them in the SEC Championship.  This would put Oregon playing Texas into a semi-final game instead of the natty, but I still don't see a world where the Oregon Ducks don't walk out of Mercedes-Benz Stadium as National Championships to end the season!

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