What is the conference realignment going to do to the CFB rankings...

...and what about the new 12-team playoff?

I suppose these are two questions that nobody really knows the answer to, but it's fun to speculate.  We now have a Power 4 with the a stacked Big Ten and SEC, a very intriguing Big 12, and a rather consistent ACC.  Attention will also have to shift to the group of five conferences now with automatic bids going to two conference winners (as things stand, at least; this is likely to change).  What are these new conferences going to do to the rankings and how will the new playoff look this December?

Overall theory:
We are going to see an unprecedented amount of name-brand teams with 2-3+ losses.  That's just a fact.  When you have games like Michigan/Washington where one team is guaranteed a loss out of that game, they will begin to accumulate.  Unlike soccer or even the NFL, somebody has to lose.  Now, traditionally, the committees that be will rank the "best" teams.  However, we're now going to have some of these decent/good teams with more than 3 losses, it will be harder to argue that they're better than, say, a one-loss Big 12 team.  My overall theory for next season is that the AP polls and the CFP rankings look really weird.  Like, we're going to have some teams on those lists that haven't been there in a while and some teams that have been there for years not present.  They may be in the SEC, but what happens if you have a 5-loss Ole Miss and only a 2-loss South Florida team (or something similar)?  Ole Miss would likely win a head-to-head, but do they end up ranked above them?  We will have to see how the AP and the CFP committee handle these situations.  Regardless, I am excited for 2024 and the chaos we are sure to witness.  With that out of the way, I have a few way too early thoughts and predictions for a few of the conferences.

Big Ten:
Michigan are coming hot off a National Championship, but likely will not have Harbaugh as he's already taking interviews in the NFL for teams like the Chargers and Falcons.  It will be interesting to see how a new coach will mesh with the current batch of players.  Ohio State struggled in 2023 and it's been since 2020 that they have been able to beat the Wolverines and get themselves into playoff form.  Penn State have not been able to match either the Buckeyes or the Wolverines, but they are still a brand name in the Big Ten who could still pose a surprise threat to the heavyweights.  Teams like Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa (the middle class of the Big Ten), are always an interesting challenge, but I think it's safe to say we should not expect great things from any of these schools.

The big change for 2024?  Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all bringing their talents to the Big Ten thanks to the demise of the Pac-12.  The Huskies were runners-up last year behind only their new conference rivals, Michigan.  Oregon, under coach Dan Lanning, will also be posing a significant threat after acquiring Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma.  USC and UCLA will also be tough challenges for the Big Ten opponents, but will likely fit in around the middle of the pack.

My prediction is that Michigan will top the Big Ten with Oregon and Ohio State in close pursuit.  It would not be far-fetched to see all three of them in the 12-team playoff.  It would not be the most shocking thing ever if Washington and/or Penn State work their way into the mix for the conference title, but I think they will fall just short in 2024.

SEC:
The SEC dominated the 4-team playoff era, courtesy of Alabama, LSU, and Georgia.  With the retirement of Nick Saban, Alabama's future is more unknown now than it has been since 2007.  They could finish anywhere from top of the SEC and #1 in the country to unranked and barely being bowl eligible.  LSU should return with a decent season, but the jury is still out on whether or not they will compete with the big dogs of the SEC in 2024.  Georgia, again, looks like they are the SEC favorite for this upcoming season, but they certainly have some company for championship contention.  Traditional SEC members Missouri and Ole Miss both had amazing seasons in 2023.  The return of Dart to the Rebels and the a lot of returning starters for the Tigers should boost the confidence of both teams.  Tennessee is making some noise with their new quarterback, but he is still unproven.

The new boys on the block are coming in from the Big 12.  Playoff qualifiers and reigning Big 12 Champions Texas Longhorns are the second place favorites for the SEC title behind the Georgia Bulldogs and the return of Quinn Ewers as a preseason Heisman favorite certainly looks good on paper.  Sarkisian proved he can compete with the likes of the SEC last year with his big win over Alabama, so it will be interesting to see how they stack up.  The other newbie is the Oklahoma Sooners.  Personally, I think they will be a bit of a bust after losing start quarterback Dillion Gabriel and after their disappointing season last year.  In the SEC, I would not expect Oklahoma to be a notable presence this year.

My prediction is that Texas will topple the oddsmakers and win the SEC in their first season as a member and Quinn Ewers will stay healthy through the year and win the Heisman.  Georgia will still be a force and take second.  I also think we could see one of LSU, Ole Miss, or Missouri sneak their way into the playoffs as a third SEC team.

Big 12:
The Big 12 have lost two of their traditional powerhouses in Texas and Oklahoma.  While this may bring joy to schools like Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and the like, it also means there will be a newfound competitiveness to the Big 12 as the crown is up for grabs.  Oklahoma State found themselves as runners up last year after losing to Texas in the Big 12 Championship, but they seem rather unpredictable.  TCU were unable to recapture their glory from a year ago, but Kansas State remains an intriguing threat.

In 2024, four new teams from the west will join the Big 12.  Arizona seem to be bringing the biggest punch as far as the new teams.  Colorado will bring the hype with Coach Prime and his sons in their second year with the program.  Utah had a strong defense last year, but were unable to hang with the other Pac-12 leaders like Washington and Oregon.  Arizona State really struggled to pose a threat to anybody last year and I have yet to see a reason why that won't be the same in 2024.

My prediction is that the Arizona Wildcats will top the Big 12 and take the automatic bid to the playoffs.  I think we will see Kansas State make a return to the Big 12 Championship, but just fall short.  Utah, Oklahoma State, and TCU I expect to be decent, as well, but not quite able to keep up.   One issue I could definitely see is that the Big 12 teams will beat up on each other so much that an at-large bid won't make it on account of there being too many losses.  This conference really will be wide open, though, and that auto bid to the playoffs is the light at the end of the tunnel.

ACC:
The last of the Power 4 conferences is the one being surrounded in controversy right now.  Apparently, winning it and being undefeated is no longer enough to get a spot in a four team playoff, but at least the winner will be guaranteed a spot this time around.  At the same time, they are like a prison for the teams that want more competition (specifically, Florida State).  I think the Seminoles will once again be a strong contender for the ACC.  We may see Clemson come back to the top after their disappointing last couple of years.  Duke had a strong start to the year, but fell off the wagon toward the end.  Miami self-destructed against Georgia Tech and were never quite able to recover.  Both of those programs will be looking to make statements in 2024. North Carolina also showed some potential and will look to top the ACC.  Louisville had a surprisingly good year in 2023 and will be looking to make the championship game a second year in a row, but only time will tell if '23 was a fluke or not.

Three newcomers from way out west (ignoring the "Atlantic Coast" part of the conference name), Cal, Stanford, and SMU will be fighting to fit in against their new east coast rivals.  Cal proved to be difficult to play against last year, but never really got the results.  SMU is interesting to watch, but can't seem to hang with the big teams.  Stanford pulled off some great wins in 2023 and probably have the best chance of the three new teams to pose a threat to the title.

My prediction is that Florida State will top the ACC again with Clemson hot on their tail.  I think Louisville will do well again, but lose to the Seminoles and Tigers.  Stanford, Duke, UNC, and Miami will all make bowl games, but I don't foresee them competing for the conference title.

Group of 5:
The Group of 5 conferences will have reason to celebrate as they will be getting at least one (possibly two if nothin changes) spots in the 2024 College Football Playoff.  With Cincinnati being the only representative of the Group of 5 in the four team playoff now being a part of the Big 12, we will see a brand new Group of 5 school in the postseason tournament.  Liberty went undefeated last year and are the current favorites to grab the spot.  There has been some hype surrounding South Florida with their new stadium plans and their close game against Alabama last year.  James Madison made a name for themselves last year almost going undefeated and failing to get a waiver for post-season play (thankfully getting a spot courtesy of so many teams under .500).  Assuming they get the pass in 2024, they could be another shout for the playoff spot.  UNLV in the Mountain West look like they could pose a threat next year, too, along with conference rivals Boise State and Fresno State.

My prediction is that James Madison has another great year, but is still not given a waiver by the NCAA (because they love to show off their power for no reason) and the playoff spot will go to either Liberty or UNLV.

Playoff predictions:
My prediction is that they will drop the number of automatic bids to 5 and the now Pac-2 will not receive one of them.  This means one open spot for the Group of 5 schools.  I believe the auto-bids will be:
Big Ten - Michigan (ranked #1)
SEC - Texas (ranked #2)
ACC - Florida State (ranked #3)
Big 12 - Arizona (ranked #4)
Go5 - Liberty (ranked #12)

The Power 4 conference winners will likely get the top 4 seed byes, as well unless Arizona does not have the resume to beat out one of the at-large bids.  I think the remaining spots will be filled by:
Georgia (ranked #5)
Oregon (ranked #6)
Ohio State (ranked #7)
Notre Dame (ranked #8)
Clemson (ranked #9)
Ole Miss (ranked #10)
Kansas State (ranked #11)

This would give us the following first round matchups:
Liberty @ Georgia
Kansas State @ Oregon
Ole Miss @ Ohio State
Clemson @ Notre Dame
with all four games being played on the home team's campuses.  What an amazing spectacle those would be!

Finally, my way way way too early prediction for the National Championship will be Oregon vs Texas and the Oregon Ducks win it all.  A lot remains to be seen, but I would love to be right about this prediction.  I will release my full model-based predictions and official personal thoughts much closer to the start of the season after all the transfers are finalized and I can get an idea of what rosters will look like.

Thoughts?